Bar: Scary Salaries doesn't abbreviate to SS for nothing

All the West Coast seems abuzz with the news of Orrick's jump to $160, followed by OMM and MoFo. While some other big players haven't announced yet, it's a very safe bet they will--when GDC and LW go into fall recruiting they don't want empty dance cards. Frankly, I'm scared. In my three years of law school, market jumped from $125 for everyone coast-to-coast, to $135 WC/$145 NYC, to $145 WC/$160 NYC, to $160 coast-to-coast. Until NYC bumps again, but a bump to what?

If you read the full news over at ATL, it seems that at least for MoFo it might not be a "true" bump--bonuses and the summer bar-stipend are getting adjusted as well. I hope that's true for all the bump-ers, for several reasons. First, I don't think I'm worth that much. No, I know I'm not worth that much. Even $125 was double what my dad ever earned. $160 is just preposterous, much like the Bay Area housing market. And also like the Bay Area housing market, the bubble has to burst at some point. Every graduating 3L knows damn well we didn't learn enough at law school to make us worth nearly that much money when we start. I'm sure my future secretary will know more law than I will.

The second reason I'm worried is that I rather like Mr. BB. I'm hoping to see some of him after we're married. $160 isn't a gift. A $35K bump in 3 years outpaces inflation, so it isn't matching whatever prices the clients get charged. No, my best guess is that the $160 means more work will be demanded, and more work means more billable hours and less time with Mr. BB and less time doing fun non-work things.

Which seems to me to be the firms shooting themselves in the foot. The stories of associate attrition are legendary, often at years 4 or 5 when the person is finally profitable. To me, $160 means a firm might get 3 years of 2400 hours, but it makes getting years 4 and 5 or beyond even less likely.

Does anyone want to hire me for $100K and 1600? How about $80K?